Point of No Return

“Of the twenty-two civilizations that have appeared in history, nineteen of them collapsed when they reached the moral state the United States is in now.”  ― Arnold Joseph Toynbee

Collapse is imminent. It’s not if, it’s when and we are on the precipice. I’m not saying that to be negative, I’m saying it because we have moseyed out beyond the “Point of No Return.” Have you noticed any supply chain problems with the products that you used to consume but can’t find anymore. All the stuff you used to order on Amazon, that’s not available.

What about the products that are still available but have increased in price at exorbitant rates, just in the last few months. Large Corporations have seen unprecedented profits this century from offshoring all of the manufacturing to the slave labor camps of industrialized China. You won’t hear it from the mainstream media but the American economy is completely dependent on Chinese manufacturing.

The short sightedness of Global corporations as they attempt to squeeze out every penny in profits, has left us with a dangerous dependency on Chinese manufacturing and given them tremendous leverage. They are using it right now by slowing down the production and delivery of goods. 

How Much Does Free Trade Cost?

As we have moved to a Global economy, there is little redundancy in the manufacture of goods. “Hell, it took me two months just to get a half dozen bicycle inner tubes for the season.” The party line from the media is that free trade is a good thing, that we all benefit from, but that’s just more propaganda. It’s obviously not reality. The only ones that have benefitted are the mega corporations that are driving the globalization bus, the financiers and the insiders.

The rest of us suffer with products that aren’t available and massive inflation on everything else… And sadly the real pain hasn’t even started yet. To be honest, it’s not China’s fault, they are doing the same thing America has done many times in the past. Like the Siege of Vicksburg, a major turning point in the civil war. 

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

It’s a brilliant idea on China’s part, and we haven’t even realized the implications yet. Shortages and inflation will continue to spiral out of control. The obvious long term solution would be to bring the manufacturing back to the U.S. Not because I’m a nationalist, it’s just the only idea that makes sense. It might even happen but not without some serious pain; Collapse actually, as we have already reached the “Point of No Return.”

The chickens have already come home to roost. Essential raw commodities, parts and feedstock are already unavailable or have doubled and tripled in price as we have become dependent on a handful of sources for the critical goods we need in the name of maximizing profitability for the global corporations. They have sacrificed national interests in the service of greed and so has the U.S. government.

The Joy of Retirement

Vickie and I both took early retirement a few years back, figuring we had a nice nest egg and some decent fixed income. Inflation is the enemy of fixed income and savings though, so we’ve both gone back to work temporarily as a hedge. Vickie manages the grocery and convenience stores here in the Emerald City, which is ironically what she retired from; that job however was with the largest grocery chain in the Great Wide World, ( a mega-corp). A little different from a small independant community store. I help her out doing all the dirty jobs, like Mike Rowe. The stuff nobody else wants to do.

So we have first hand experience with product shortages and inflation. And people don’t understand inflation very well. I’ve had a number of folks tell me how much profit they made selling a house. “It doubled in price, I made so much money in such a short time.” So, I ask; “If you doubled your money on the house but the price of everything you buy with that money tripled, did you really make any money?” They just stare open mouthed as the realization hit’s home.

Dominoes

I stated earlier that I’m not being negative about the fact that the whole mess is going to come tumbling down, like dominoes. The failure rate of civiizations to date is 86% based on the Toynbee quote above. It’s going to happen and that’s probably a good thing. Like the other 19 failed civilizations, we still have not figured out how to live sustainably in the Great Wide World and we need to take a mulligan, a do-over if you will.

I thought about suggesting the old proverb; “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.” The thing is, when we are this far past the, “Point of No Return,” the best and the worst is very likely the exact same outcome – Collapse. It’s time to start preparing, folks. And I’m suggesting that in the most positive way. Change is good.